Howiviewit’s Blog

With the war now practically over the questions on everyone’s minds are: Where is Prabhakaran? How many people died in the end for us to get where we are now? How many of us died within the last crucial, and evidently extremely bloody, days? Has peace been brought? Can we finally all be happy? I’m not saying I know the answers to these questions but there seems to be adequate information out there for us to develop a decent opinion by taking previous records into consideration as well. All these assumptions based on evidence will hopefully provide a decent opinion on the current stability and progress in Sri Lanka.

The answer to the first question is no one knows. Prabakharan, Pottu Amman and Soosai; the three big dogs of the LTTE have not yet been identified amongst the dead nor been captured by the  troops, even though those close to them including family members have either been arrested, died in conflict or have surrendered. But no one really knows where these three are yet. Army Commander Sarath Fonseka said back in  January that he wasn’t sure of Prabhakarans’ whereabouts and suggested that he could have left the country by submarine (article1). Since then the armed forces have recovered submarines and more, increasing the likelihood of Mr.Fonseka’s story. The fact that Prabhakaran was latterly operating on board Farah 111 (article2) further gives reason to think that he may have made a quick get away at some point of time.  However, a failed attempt by Soosai’s family to leave the shores secretly, together with new reports on Prabhakaran’s sons death could mean that Prabhakaran could still be on the island dead or alive as our shores and seas will probably now be monitored closer than ever before by the Navy. Therefore the hunt for Prabhakaran is still on.

Sri Lanka’s total death toll from this conflict which started in 1983  was estimated to be around 75,000  in March. However the exodus of over 200,000 civilians from the extremely small and dense rebel-controlled area to the government controlled area, together with the accelerated offensive during the last week may see that figure increase to my own estimate of around 100,000-120,000 altogether since the start of this war. Here are some figures to put things into perspective as to exactly how many other people have died due to poor governance and freak accidents in Sri Lanka. These are excluding those who died in the cross-fire, suicide attacks and ‘targetted’ bombings in the war. The death toll after the 2004 Tsunami was 35,000.  The death toll during the violent JVP insurgency was around 35,000 with the JVP ruthlessly killing around 800 people and the then UNP govt. killing roughly 30,000 predominantly Sinhalese youths. For the record, the use of white vans and death squads began sadly under this UNP regime and atrocities such as the assassination of journalists became an occurance and a serious threat. Have we now got passed those days of state terror?

Since the government denounced the LTTE as a terrorist outfit at the start of this year, violence and the death toll increased greatly. The following link takes you to an article written by an Indian colonel who has given a good military assessment throughout the war. The fact that it is a military official writing the report gives us a further understanding on the realities of war:  War and the Humanitarian crisis in Wanni

Wikipedia has this information on the number of battles since the civil war:    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sri_Lankan_Civil_War_battles

During these latter months, violence out of the war zone increased with many people being arrested under Terror laws by the police or being assaulted, kidnapped or murdered by sources unknown to anyone. On average 2-3 people a day go missing in Sri Lanka and don’t usually end up being found. Most of those arrestedby the police or assaulted, kidnapped or murdered by unknown sources are Sri Lankan Tamil civilians. However the general understanding is that this unknown group do not racially discriminate when taking out their targets. TV and radio stations, Newspaper editors and journalists and more have all been victims of these masked cowards.

Has peace been brought to Sri Lanka? Most definitely not yet. The excuse that was given to us citizens over the lack of progress for the last 30 years has been got rid of. At an extremely high human and economic cost. Both which must be stressed on immensely since preparation to face reality is vital for the stability of Sri Lanka. While the death toll is huge and completely distressing, the biggest and most pressing issue right now should be the safety and welfare of  those who survived this great ordeal, those who were able to walk to safety, many minus the company of a mother, father, brother,sister, son or daughter or all of those mentioned. The thousands of survivors, including our soldiers ,who lost their limbs so that we can walk freely cannot be forgotten. In a country where building standards are relatively unheard of and govt buildings are not accessible to everyone, these new factors which have altered our demographics must be considered in future development plans in order to ensure that people from the most vulnerable parts of society feel better connected to the bigger picture of prosperity even when the effects of war have left them scarred forever.

The cost of fighting this war has been immense.  Here are some figures to give you an idea. The defence budget in 2009 was around US$1.7 Billion (180 Billion rupees ) a 6.4% increase from 2008.  In 2007 the defence budget was Rs. 139.6 billion, a 45% increase from the 2006 buget of  Rs.96 billion. These budget increases were passed through parliament and it clearly showed that the majority were in favour of taking such high financial risk in order to eradicate terrorism. Note that it is predominantly the increase in military expenditure and the removal of military quotas that allowed the army to push on with their offensive without having to worry about running out of ammo. While this move may have been justified at the time by those who supported the end of the war at any cost, it is not clear as to why the government would want to spend public money on buying more helicopters from Russia as recent as the 16th of May 2009 (article 3).  I think most people would see the absurdity in spending this much money even if it is on the grounds of speeding up the humanitarian effort. Surely we have some diplomatic relations that would provide helicopters for our humanitarian needs.  What puts further suspicion into my mind is an article which clearly proves that any questioning of the Govts. spending habits could possibly lead to the death of those investigating it and definitely will put an end to that investigation (article 4). However these questions must be asked in order to ensure that tax payers money has been spent most efficiently especially when each chopper costs between US$3-US$8 million a piece. The end of the war brought hope that such costs would immediately be curbed and that the defence budget would increasingly be spent on the welfare of our armed forces and IDP’s instead of buying heavy duty weaponry. I am certain that we would be able to seek appropriate foreign assistance with the development of the north which includes de-mining areas and developing them for those civilians from those areas as well as the potential businesses that are expected to follow.

The support towards the government for backing the military victory has given them an unprecedented edge over the opposing parties without a  doubt. However it doesn’t help when members of the opposing parties are too engrossed in their internal party rivalries to think of what the people actually want and expect from them which is a strong opposition which would support the government in hours of need and provide the public with a strong alternative in case the present government is not able to live up to the peoples political, social, economical and environmental expectations.

Signs of a growing, mature opposition is yet to be seen. Corruption that has taken place in the past is still continuing and new forms of corruption are creeping up,  some MP’s still cross from party to party like trading horses, hoping that the party in power would protect them from the law and keep them in power. The level of public money that has been wasted on ministers can be seen by just calculating how many cars there are in all 119 ministries and how much it costs to buy, pump fuel and maintain these designer cars that are seen flying down the road at deadly speeds. Out of the 119 literally only a handful require tight security at all times and may need a large entourage due to the danger brought on them by their nature of government work.

The President of Sri Lanka returned from Jordan to a heroes victory while Ranil Wickramasinghe, leader of the opposition, was having talks with Eric Solheim. The environmental minister of Norway is seen more as an LTTE supporter rather than just a  sympathiser and has gained discredit in Sri Lanka. A meeting of such kind at a time when national pride and patriotism are running through most voters veins seems idiocentric and irresponsible of the Leader of the opposition as it could wreate further destruction of the party and reduce support further. By failing to provide us with a  strong opposition and becoming this unpopular amongst the masses, the opposition has put some politicians into serious jeopardy.

MP Mano Ganeshan of the Western Democratic Peoples Front is the latest to be attacked by the pro-government media who have chosen to carry out a smear campaign even on moderate Tamil politicians such as Mr.Ganeshan timing it perfectly with the forces military victory. This sort of unregulated behaviour carried out by state television is sickening. The only possible outcome to be gained from this sort of stunt by the state media is to insight further race hate at a time when Sinhala pride and Sinhala nationalism amongst the masses are sky high. Watching Mano Ganeshan defending himself in this clip made me feel even worse on the current situation. While some may empathies with Ganeshan, others might see it as the truth being told by the most watched tv station on the island who brought in daily news on the war front and became the number one propaganda tool for the most popular President.

This is the current reality in Sri Lanka. Territorial victory has been gained and for that we must be grateful to the armed forces for successfully carrying out their duties and ended the fighting altogether. Now it is up to the people to unlock the gates that have been barring us from peace, stability and prosperity for so long and get off the ground to work hard towards it without further delay. The key to doing this is by spreading knowledge.